Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Saddiq BeyRebounds10
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–122
- Q40.2Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Onyeka Okongwu steals)113–122
- Q410.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound113–122
- Q413.1Dejounte Murray misses 27-foot three point jumper113–122
- Q422.1Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2113–122
- Q422.1Duncan Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2113–121
- Q422.1Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul113–120
- Q427.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Josh Richardson113–120
- Q427.1Dejounte Murray out of bounds bad pass turnover113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:08Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)ATL 80 – 80 MIA · MIA 42% → 53% +11MIA 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q331.1Trae Young makes 29-foot three pointerATL 84 – 86 MIA · ATL 28% → 39% +11ATL 28% → 39%+11 pts
- Q411:27Trae Young makes 27-foot step back jumpshotATL 89 – 90 MIA · ATL 31% → 43% +12ATL 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q410:24Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)ATL 89 – 93 MIA · MIA 57% → 69% +13MIA 57% → 69%+13 pts
- Q43:33Trae Young makes 26-foot three point shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 103 – 107 MIA · ATL 8% → 21% +13ATL 8% → 21%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.0 – 120.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +27 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +43 Elo | MIA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.920th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 114.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 7–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.