Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Kevin LoveRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–108
- Q40.0Timberwolves defensive team rebound112–108
- Q42.0Tyler Herro misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot112–108
- Q44.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Bam Adebayo112–108
- Q44.1Heat Full timeout112–108
- Q44.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2112–108
- Q44.1Kevin Love enters the game for Duncan Robinson111–108
- Q44.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2111–108
- Q44.1Tyler Herro personal take foul110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:57Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIN 97 – 97 MIA · MIA 29% → 49% +21MIA 29% → 49%+21 pts
- Q42:11Josh Richardson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIN 103 – 102 MIA · MIA 16% → 40% +24MIA 16% → 40%+24 pts
- Q41:03Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 107 – 104 MIA · MIN 64% → 86% +22MIN 64% → 86%+22 pts
- Q446.1Tyler Herro makes 18-foot pullup jump shotMIN 107 – 106 MIA · MIA 11% → 34% +23MIA 11% → 34%+23 pts
- Q426.1Anthony Edwards makes 13-foot two point shotMIN 109 – 106 MIA · MIN 71% → 95% +24MIN 71% → 95%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 110.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +92 | +64 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 113.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 112.010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 7–515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.