Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- Coby WhiteAssists11
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points22
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Caleb MartinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–116
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound124–116
- Q40.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses driving layup124–116
- Q45.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2124–116
- Q45.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2123–116
- Q45.1Caleb Martin personal take foul122–116
- Q47.1Caleb Martin makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyle Lowry assists)122–116
- Q47.1Kyle Lowry offensive rebound122–113
- Q411.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 25-foot step back jumpshot122–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q329.0Kevin Love makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CHI 92 – 86 MIA · MIA 23% → 33% +10MIA 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q49:18Caleb Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)CHI 101 – 95 MIA · MIA 18% → 29% +11MIA 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q47:10Kyle Lowry makes driving layupCHI 105 – 101 MIA · MIA 25% → 34% +9MIA 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q43:22Kyle Lowry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)CHI 113 – 108 MIA · MIA 7% → 18% +12MIA 7% → 18%+12 pts
- Q42:27Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 116 – 109 MIA · CHI 80% → 94% +14CHI 80% → 94%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Fair odds
- MIA -168
- CHI +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 109.4 – 113.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +51 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +108 Elo | MIA 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 112.722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 111.39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | +1.316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 113.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+51 Elo- Bam Adebayo left hip injury−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.