Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Tyler HerroRebounds8
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–106
- Q40.1Magic offensive team rebound115–106
- Q40.1Caleb Houstan misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot115–106
- Q45.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2115–106
- Q45.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2114–106
- Q45.2Moritz Wagner personal take foul113–106
- Q411.1Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shot113–106
- Q411.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound113–104
- Q414.0Caleb Houstan misses 31-foot three point jumper113–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:41Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunkMIA 19 – 14 ORL · MIA 42% → 51% +9MIA 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q14:31Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)MIA 17 – 17 ORL · ORL 49% → 60% +11ORL 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q29:03Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 31 – 30 ORL · MIA 36% → 43% +7MIA 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q28:20Josh Richardson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 34 – 32 ORL · MIA 38% → 46% +7MIA 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q23:02Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 52 – 40 ORL · MIA 66% → 73% +7MIA 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 63%
- Fair odds
- ORL -158
- MIA +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.5 – 113.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +33 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +92 Elo | ORL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 113.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 111.120th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 107.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 11–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.