Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–114
- Q45.1Oshae Brissett defensive rebound97–114
- Q46.2Anthony Black misses driving layup97–114
- Q423.1Anthony Black defensive rebound97–114
- Q426.0Dalano Banton misses 26-foot step back jumpshot97–114
- Q449.2Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)97–114
- Q41:00Payton Pritchard steps out of bounds turnover94–114
- Q41:10Caleb Houstan makes free throw 2 of 294–114
- Q41:10Caleb Houstan makes free throw 1 of 293–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:09Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot step back jumpshotORL 33 – 34 BOS · BOS 56% → 63% +7BOS 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q26:18Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotORL 39 – 39 BOS · ORL 32% → 40% +7ORL 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q411:47Jonathan Isaac makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 77 – 83 BOS · ORL 13% → 21% +8ORL 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q410:42Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointerORL 79 – 88 BOS · BOS 79% → 88% +8BOS 79% → 88%+8 pts
- Q49:37Moritz Wagner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 84 – 90 BOS · ORL 12% → 20% +8ORL 12% → 20%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -171
- ORL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.1 – 115.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | +84 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +131 Elo | BOS 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 109.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +8.82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 117.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 108.34th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 13–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.