Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints19
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Sam HauserRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–128
- Q48.1Caleb Houstan makes two point shot111–128
- Q48.1Caleb Houstan offensive rebound109–128
- Q412.0Jett Howard misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot109–128
- Q415.1Jett Howard defensive rebound109–128
- Q418.0Lamar Stevens misses 12-foot pullup jump shot109–128
- Q433.1Sam Hauser defensive rebound109–128
- Q436.1Lamar Stevens blocks Admiral Schofield 's 6-foot driving dunk109–128
- Q450.1Anthony Black defensive rebound109–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q155.1Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointerORL 24 – 27 BOS · BOS 51% → 58% +7BOS 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q123.1Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)ORL 24 – 30 BOS · BOS 58% → 65% +7BOS 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q29:27Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 33 – 35 BOS · ORL 37% → 44% +7ORL 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q28:55Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 36 – 37 BOS · ORL 39% → 47% +7ORL 39% → 47%+7 pts
- Q28:35Oshae Brissett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)ORL 36 – 40 BOS · BOS 53% → 61% +7BOS 53% → 61%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -103
- ORL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.4 – 112.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +59 | +56 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 117.37th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 108.93rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +8.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 108.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 12–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+56 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis left calf tightness−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.