Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints32
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints23
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–117
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound122–117
- Q40.0Royce O'Neale misses 52-foot three point pullup jump shot122–117
- Q42.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2122–117
- Q42.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2121–117
- Q42.1Dorian Finney-Smith personal take foul120–117
- Q43.1Dorian Finney-Smith makes alley oop layup (Royce O'Neale assists)120–117
- Q44.1Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe120–115
- Q44.1Royce O'Neale enters the game for Nic Claxton120–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:56Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 109 – 105 BKN · DEN 62% → 86% +24DEN 62% → 86%+24 pts
- Q41:35Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot step back jumpshotDEN 109 – 108 BKN · BKN 12% → 37% +25BKN 12% → 37%+25 pts
- Q41:20Jamal Murray makes 18-foot pullup jump shotDEN 111 – 108 BKN · DEN 64% → 84% +20DEN 64% → 84%+20 pts
- Q41:10Mikal Bridges makes driving layup (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)DEN 111 – 110 BKN · BKN 15% → 35% +21BKN 15% → 35%+21 pts
- Q454.2Jamal Murray makes 13-foot two point shotDEN 113 – 110 BKN · DEN 66% → 88% +22DEN 66% → 88%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Fair odds
- DEN -154
- BKN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.0 – 112.8 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +120 | +25 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +96 Elo | DEN 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 115.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 8–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+120 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.