New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds13
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints20
- Royce O'NealeAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–102
- Q423.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes 1-foot dunk (Royce O'Neale assists)121–102
- Q426.2Josh Hart lost ball turnover (Jalen Wilson steals)121–100
- Q426.2Josh Hart vs. Jalen Wilson (Royce O'Neale gains possession)121–100
- Q428.1Josh Hart offensive rebound121–100
- Q433.1Miles McBride misses running pullup jump shot121–100
- Q437.1Harry Giles III lost ball turnover (Quentin Grimes steals)121–100
- Q443.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound121–100
- Q447.0Ryan Arcidiacono misses 26-foot three point jumper121–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:24Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Royce O'Neale assists)NY 39 – 32 BKN · BKN 27% → 33% +7BKN 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q27:01Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)NY 42 – 37 BKN · BKN 31% → 38% +7BKN 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q24:28Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 49 – 42 BKN · NY 60% → 68% +8NY 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:25Cam Thomas makes 23-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)NY 56 – 49 BKN · BKN 24% → 31% +7BKN 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q33:03Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three pointerNY 84 – 75 BKN · BKN 13% → 20% +7BKN 13% → 20%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- BKN 47%
- Fair odds
- BKN -102
- NY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.6 – 115.7 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | +39 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −24 | NY crossed 3 time zones and BKN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +23 Elo | NY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 116.112th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 115.119th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 115.211th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 114.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.