New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- RJ BarrettAssists4
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds17
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q41.1Julius Randle defensive rebound114–109
- Q43.1Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point shot114–109
- Q47.1Josh Hart lost ball turnover (Cam Reddish steals)114–109
- Q410.1Josh Hart makes free throw clear path 2 of 2114–109
- Q410.1Josh Hart makes free throw clear path 1 of 2113–109
- Q410.1(00:10.7) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)112–109
- Q410.1Anthony Davis clear path foul112–109
- Q414.1Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)112–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:37Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)NY 75 – 78 LAL · LAL 55% → 65% +11LAL 55% → 65%+11 pts
- Q33:08Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 78 – 78 LAL · NY 35% → 45% +11NY 35% → 45%+11 pts
- Q350.1Immanuel Quickley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 87 – 80 LAL · NY 62% → 72% +11NY 62% → 72%+11 pts
- Q47:58Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot step back jumpshotNY 97 – 90 LAL · NY 66% → 79% +13NY 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q43:14Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)NY 106 – 99 LAL · NY 77% → 91% +14NY 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 59%
- Fair odds
- LAL -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.6 – 116.2 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +44 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +60 Elo | LAL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 114.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 113.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 109.98th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 10–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.