Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints30
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–104
- Q420.1Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2113–104
- Q420.1Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2113–103
- Q420.1Aaron Gordon shooting foul113–102
- Q423.1Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot layup (Jamal Murray assists)113–102
- Q447.0Dennis Schroder makes driving layup (O.G. Anunoby assists)111–102
- Q450.1Nikola Jokic personal foul111–100
- Q41:01Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)111–100
- Q41:22Nikola Jokic defensive rebound108–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:24Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 18 – 13 TOR · DEN 60% → 66% +6DEN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q46:06Precious Achiuwa makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DEN 96 – 91 TOR · TOR 11% → 22% +11TOR 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q45:36Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 99 – 91 TOR · DEN 79% → 90% +11DEN 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q45:20Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (O.G. Anunoby assists)DEN 99 – 94 TOR · TOR 10% → 20% +11TOR 10% → 20%+11 pts
- Q44:59Nikola Jokic makes 12-foot two point shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)DEN 101 – 94 TOR · DEN 80% → 88% +8DEN 80% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 61%
- Fair odds
- DEN -128
- TOR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.8 – 112.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +113 | +36 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +78 Elo | DEN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 112.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 114.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −1.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 111.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 8–721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.