Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints22
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–120
- Q411.0Jamal Murray defensive rebound114–120
- Q414.1Stephen Curry misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–120
- Q419.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2114–120
- Q419.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2114–119
- Q419.1Stephen Curry personal take foul114–118
- Q426.0Chris Paul makes two point shot114–118
- Q434.0Nikola Jokic makes 1-foot dunk (Aaron Gordon assists)112–118
- Q443.0Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup112–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotGS 103 – 104 DEN · DEN 50% → 62% +12DEN 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q44:13Aaron Gordon makes tip shotGS 103 – 106 DEN · DEN 62% → 74% +12DEN 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q43:56Stephen Curry makes two point shotGS 105 – 104 DEN · GS 25% → 52% +27GS 25% → 52%+27 pts
- Q43:50Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2GS 105 – 108 DEN · DEN 55% → 75% +20DEN 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q42:32Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerGS 107 – 113 DEN · DEN 78% → 93% +15DEN 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Fair odds
- DEN -204
- GS +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.4 – 118.8 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +123 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +115 Elo | DEN 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 115.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 116.27th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 11–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+123 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.