Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–129
- Q40.0(00:00) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)118–129
- Q41.1Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)118–129
- Q45.1Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2115–129
- Q45.1Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 2115–128
- Q45.1Bilal Coulibaly shooting foul115–127
- Q45.1Gui Santos offensive rebound115–127
- Q410.2Lester Quinones misses 29-foot step back jumpshot115–127
- Q431.0Bilal Coulibaly makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)115–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:35Kyle Kuzma makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 15 – 7 GS · WSH 34% → 40% +6WSH 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q15:52Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)WSH 17 – 14 GS · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q23:14Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)WSH 49 – 53 GS · GS 73% → 79% +6GS 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q24.1Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three pointerWSH 61 – 63 GS · WSH 19% → 26% +7WSH 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q310:49Stephen Curry makes 24-foot step back jumpshotWSH 63 – 68 GS · GS 74% → 81% +7GS 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Fair odds
- GS -324
- WSH +324 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 117.3 – 126.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +48 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +247 Elo | GS 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 76.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 116.511th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.5 | Points allowed | 116.020th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Pace | 101.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.