Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints28
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–114
- Q40.1Trail Blazers Full timeout118–114
- Q40.1Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2118–114
- Q40.1Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2117–114
- Q40.1Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul116–114
- Q40.1Warriors Full timeout116–114
- Q40.1Shaedon Sharpe turnover116–114
- Q40.1Shaedon Sharpe offensive charge116–114
- Q44.1Deandre Ayton defensive rebound116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:14Matisse Thybulle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)GS 82 – 82 POR · POR 35% → 46% +11POR 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q47:50Klay Thompson makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 95 – 93 POR · GS 53% → 63% +10GS 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q47:18Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 98 – 93 POR · GS 63% → 77% +14GS 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q414.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 1GS 115 – 114 POR · POR 7% → 22% +16POR 7% → 22%+16 pts
- Q46.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2GS 116 – 114 POR · GS 87% → 99% +11GS 87% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 63%
- Fair odds
- GS -130
- POR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.4 – 113.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | −22 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +91 Elo | GS 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 107.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 114.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −7.025th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 105.727th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 2–826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.