Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints30
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints33
- Chris PaulAssists12
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game126–132
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime126–132
- OT0.0Celtics offensive team rebound126–132
- OT1.1Jrue Holiday misses 38-foot three point pullup jump shot126–132
- OT3.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2126–132
- OT3.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2126–131
- OT3.1Derrick White personal take foul126–130
- OT4.0Jrue Holiday personal take foul126–130
- OT4.1Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound126–130
- OT8.1Derrick White misses 26-foot three point jumper126–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:06Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three pointerBOS 116 – 115 GS · GS 19% → 39% +21GS 19% → 39%+21 pts
- Q42:18Klay Thompson makes 31-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)BOS 118 – 118 GS · GS 22% → 48% +26GS 22% → 48%+26 pts
- Q41:53Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 121 – 118 GS · BOS 52% → 80% +28BOS 52% → 80%+28 pts
- Q41:36Stephen Curry makes 28-foot step back jumpshotBOS 121 – 121 GS · GS 18% → 48% +30GS 18% → 48%+30 pts
- OT35.0Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 126 – 127 GS · BOS 3% → 33% +30BOS 3% → 33%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 66%
- Fair odds
- BOS -151
- GS +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 114.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | +20 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +117 Elo | BOS 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 115.912th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.