Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Daniel GaffordPoints26
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Daniel GaffordRebounds17
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–112
- Q40.1Daniel Gafford offensive rebound108–112
- Q41.1Corey Kispert misses 21-foot pullup jump shot108–112
- Q44.2Corey Kispert enters the game for Deni Avdija108–112
- Q44.2Wizards Full timeout108–112
- Q44.2Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound108–112
- Q48.1Eric Gordon misses free throw 2 of 2108–112
- Q48.1Eric Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2108–112
- Q48.1Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Kyle Kuzma108–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:50Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)WSH 91 – 90 PHX · PHX 42% → 56% +14PHX 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q47:17Devin Booker makes 24-foot step back jumpshotWSH 95 – 96 PHX · PHX 49% → 65% +16PHX 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q44:42Jordan Goodwin makes two point shotWSH 97 – 100 PHX · PHX 64% → 76% +11PHX 64% → 76%+11 pts
- Q442.0Daniel Gafford makes tip shotWSH 106 – 107 PHX · WSH 9% → 31% +22WSH 9% → 31%+22 pts
- Q427.1Kevin Durant makes 1-foot driving dunk (Devin Booker assists)WSH 106 – 109 PHX · PHX 73% → 95% +23PHX 73% → 95%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7
- PHX 76%
- Fair odds
- PHX -285
- WSH +285 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.7 – 123.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +73 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +199 Elo | PHX 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 115.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 114.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 114.712th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 99.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.