Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints28
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds8
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints30
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–143
- Q41.1Davion Mitchell defensive rebound131–143
- Q41.1Eugene Omoruyi misses 26-foot step back jumpshot131–143
- Q412.1Davion Mitchell makes 11-foot pullup jump shot131–143
- Q434.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound131–141
- Q436.0Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2131–141
- Q436.0Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2131–141
- Q436.0Colby Jones shooting foul130–141
- Q444.1Colby Jones makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Kessler Edwards assists)130–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:50Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)WSH 21 – 18 SAC · SAC 68% → 74% +6SAC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:15Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mike Muscala assists)WSH 26 – 21 SAC · WSH 25% → 31% +6WSH 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q11:53Malik Monk makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 26 – 24 SAC · SAC 69% → 75% +6SAC 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:48Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 34 – 31 SAC · WSH 22% → 28% +6WSH 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q26:58Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)WSH 40 – 40 SAC · SAC 70% → 76% +6SAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -10
- SAC 84%
- Fair odds
- SAC -434
- WSH +434 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.8 – 125.9 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | +68 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +283 Elo | SAC 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 81.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 117.18th of 30 |
| 29th of 30126.2 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.8 | Margin | +0.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 114.014th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–13 | Road vs home | 9–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.