Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints32
- Kyle KuzmaAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints41
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–117
- Q40.0Deandre Ayton offensive rebound118–117
- Q40.0Jerami Grant misses two point shot118–117
- Q45.1Mike Muscala enters the game for Corey Kispert118–117
- Q45.1Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Jordan Poole118–117
- Q45.1Trail Blazers Full timeout118–117
- Q45.1Kyle Kuzma bad pass (Matisse Thybulle steals)118–117
- Q45.1Jordan Poole vs. Matisse Thybulle (Deandre Ayton gains possession)118–117
- Q47.1Anthony Gill enters the game for Tyus Jones118–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:23Deni Avdija makes tip shotWSH 114 – 111 POR · WSH 57% → 74% +17WSH 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q41:43Anfernee Simons makes 30-foot three pointerWSH 114 – 114 POR · POR 22% → 52% +30POR 22% → 52%+30 pts
- Q41:23Kyle Kuzma makes two point shotWSH 116 – 114 POR · WSH 48% → 71% +23WSH 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q431.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 116 – 115 POR · POR 17% → 32% +15POR 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q415.0Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 117 – 115 POR · WSH 76% → 92% +16WSH 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2.5
- POR 61%
- Fair odds
- POR -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.4 – 118.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +2 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +76 Elo | POR 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 107.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 114.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −6.525th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 106.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 3–926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.