Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints40
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints23
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–109
- Q43.0Malcolm Brogdon defensive rebound104–109
- Q43.0Grayson Allen misses 28-foot three point jumper104–109
- Q44.1Jusuf Nurkic offensive rebound104–109
- Q47.1Kevin Durant misses 22-foot three point shot104–109
- Q410.1Suns Full timeout104–109
- Q410.1Anfernee Simons makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot104–109
- Q419.0Trail Blazers Full timeout104–107
- Q419.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound104–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:06Malcolm Brogdon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHX 67 – 68 POR · POR 35% → 45% +10POR 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q34:04Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)PHX 73 – 77 POR · POR 45% → 56% +11POR 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q33:25Anfernee Simons makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)PHX 73 – 80 POR · POR 57% → 67% +10POR 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q33.1Malcolm Brogdon makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPHX 81 – 87 POR · POR 55% → 67% +12POR 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q48:33Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)PHX 87 – 94 POR · POR 63% → 76% +13POR 63% → 76%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 67%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- POR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.2 – 110.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +79 | −18 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +126 Elo | PHX 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 107.629th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 114.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −6.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 106.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 112.914th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.4 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 2–927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.