Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists12
- Malcolm BrogdonRebounds6
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints28
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–126
- Q410.0Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2106–126
- Q410.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound105–126
- Q410.0Jabari Walker misses free throw 1 of 2105–126
- Q410.0Usman Garuba shooting foul105–126
- Q419.1Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2105–126
- Q419.1Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 2105–125
- Q419.1Kris Murray shooting foul105–124
- Q421.2Gui Santos defensive rebound105–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:38Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 28 – 19 GS · POR 50% → 57% +7POR 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q27:33Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)POR 36 – 34 GS · POR 35% → 43% +7POR 35% → 43%+7 pts
- Q25:09Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 39 – 38 GS · POR 33% → 41% +8POR 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q33:05Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotPOR 75 – 81 GS · POR 15% → 22% +7POR 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q31:56Stephen Curry makes two point shot (Moses Moody assists)POR 75 – 85 GS · GS 78% → 88% +10GS 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Fair odds
- GS -186
- POR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 112.6 – 117.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +58 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +155 Elo | GS 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 116.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +0.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 113.815th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–10 | Road vs home | 8–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.