Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points22
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Jamal MurrayRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- Ish SmithAssists8
- Nick RichardsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–95
- Q415.1Jamal Murray defensive rebound102–95
- Q418.1Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper102–95
- Q421.0Peyton Watson enters the game for Reggie Jackson102–95
- Q421.0Hornets offensive team rebound102–95
- Q421.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope blocks Nick Smith Jr. 's 17-foot pullup jump shot102–95
- Q423.0Bryce McGowens offensive rebound102–95
- Q426.1P.J. Washington misses free throw 2 of 2102–95
- Q426.1Bryce McGowens enters the game for Nick Richards102–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:57Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 61 – 60 CHA · DEN 59% → 68% +9DEN 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q44:48Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Gordon Hayward assists)DEN 93 – 88 CHA · CHA 7% → 16% +9CHA 7% → 16%+9 pts
- Q44:17Nick Smith Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DEN 95 – 91 CHA · CHA 8% → 19% +11CHA 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q43:24Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DEN 97 – 94 CHA · CHA 9% → 23% +14CHA 9% → 23%+14 pts
- Q42:07Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 99 – 94 CHA · DEN 81% → 91% +11DEN 81% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 81%
- Fair odds
- DEN -265
- CHA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.8 – 111.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +123 | −57 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Terry Rozier −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +254 Elo | DEN 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 111.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 121.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −10.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 109.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 120.230th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 4–1025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+123 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−57 Elo- Terry Rozier right knee soreness−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.