Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Cody MartinAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–111
- Q41.0shot clock turnover93–111
- Q425.1shot clock turnover93–111
- Q450.0JT Thor makes 14-foot jumper (James Bouknight assists)93–111
- Q454.0Hornets offensive team rebound91–111
- Q454.1Zeke Nnaji blocks James Bouknight 's 1-foot two point shot91–111
- Q41:10JT Thor defensive rebound91–111
- Q41:12Jalen Pickett misses 24-foot step back jumpshot91–111
- Q41:33Bryce McGowens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)91–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:09Nick Smith Jr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshotCHA 37 – 33 DEN · CHA 23% → 30% +6CHA 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q25:16Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)CHA 37 – 36 DEN · DEN 70% → 76% +7DEN 70% → 76%+7 pts
- Q24:37Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 40 – 38 DEN · CHA 20% → 26% +6CHA 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q24:10Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)CHA 40 – 41 DEN · DEN 74% → 80% +6DEN 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q311:49Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)CHA 49 – 52 DEN · DEN 76% → 82% +6DEN 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -13.5
- DEN 90%
- Fair odds
- DEN -537
- CHA +537 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.0 – 120.7 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | +113 | CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +375 Elo | DEN 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 115.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.4 | Points allowed | 110.34th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.9 | Margin | +5.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.1 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.029th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 13–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−65 Elo- Frank Ntilikina left tibia−5 Elo
Nuggets
+113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.