Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints21
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds11
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–113
- Q421.0Terry Rozier makes two point shot (Nick Richards assists)104–113
- Q424.2Nick Richards defensive rebound102–113
- Q427.2Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot102–113
- Q448.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound102–113
- Q451.0Terry Rozier misses two point shot102–113
- Q41:01Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2102–113
- Q41:01Clippers offensive team rebound102–112
- Q41:01Russell Westbrook misses free throw 1 of 2102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:33Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)CHA 86 – 84 LAC · CHA 35% → 48% +13CHA 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q49:29Terry Rozier makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 91 – 84 LAC · CHA 58% → 71% +13CHA 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q49:12Norman Powell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)CHA 91 – 87 LAC · LAC 28% → 42% +13LAC 28% → 42%+13 pts
- Q46:24James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCHA 93 – 96 LAC · LAC 59% → 74% +15LAC 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q45:32Russell Westbrook makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCHA 93 – 99 LAC · LAC 75% → 87% +12LAC 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9.5
- LAC 82%
- Fair odds
- LAC -265
- CHA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.8 – 119.2 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +30 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +266 Elo | LAC 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 116.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 112.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 116.29th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 11–48th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.