Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints21
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–108
- Q412.1shot clock turnover145–108
- Q434.1Brandon Boston Jr. makes 7-foot pullup jump shot145–108
- Q436.0Brandon Boston Jr. offensive rebound145–106
- Q437.1Bones Hyland misses 26-foot step back jumpshot145–106
- Q450.1Lamar Stevens makes dunk (Drew Peterson assists)145–106
- Q454.1JD Davison defensive rebound143–106
- Q456.1Terance Mann misses driving floating jump shot143–106
- Q41:12Drew Peterson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lamar Stevens assists)143–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:38Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 9 – 5 LAC · BOS 53% → 62% +8BOS 53% → 62%+8 pts
- Q18:24Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BOS 8 – 8 LAC · LAC 38% → 47% +8LAC 38% → 47%+8 pts
- Q16:32Derrick White makes 24-foot three point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 14 – 12 LAC · BOS 51% → 57% +7BOS 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q13:41Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 19 – 14 LAC · BOS 57% → 64% +7BOS 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q19.0Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointerBOS 28 – 21 LAC · BOS 62% → 69% +7BOS 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- LAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.8 – 114.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1632 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +71 | +50 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 111.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +5.56th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 11–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.