Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds9
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–119
- Q413.1Kessler Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)144–119
- Q421.1Neemias Queta turnover144–116
- Q421.1Neemias Queta offensive foul144–116
- Q441.0Kessler Edwards makes 1-foot layup (Juan Toscano-Anderson assists)144–116
- Q442.0Sasha Vezenkov offensive rebound144–114
- Q446.1Kessler Edwards misses 23-foot three point shot144–114
- Q451.0Chris Duarte defensive rebound144–114
- Q454.0Svi Mykhailiuk misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot144–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:09De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 49 – 49 SAC · SAC 52% → 60% +8SAC 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q25:54Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 57 – 51 SAC · BOS 48% → 56% +8BOS 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q24:59Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 60 – 53 SAC · BOS 51% → 59% +8BOS 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q23:49Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)BOS 61 – 58 SAC · SAC 43% → 51% +8SAC 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q21:34Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 70 – 62 SAC · BOS 56% → 64% +8BOS 56% → 64%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 55%
- Fair odds
- SAC -162
- BOS +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.1 – 118.8 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +82 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +36 Elo | SAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 118.27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 117.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.5 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 114.811th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 10–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.