LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints23
- James HardenAssists6
- Russell WestbrookRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Chet HolmgrenAssists7
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–134
- Q418.1shot clock turnover115–134
- Q443.0Bones Hyland bad pass (Kenrich Williams steals)115–134
- Q457.1Ousmane Dieng makes 1-foot layup (Kenrich Williams assists)115–134
- Q41:19Brandon Boston Jr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Bones Hyland assists)115–132
- Q41:31Jaylin Williams makes dunk (Tre Mann assists)113–132
- Q41:51Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2113–130
- Q41:51Clippers offensive team rebound112–130
- Q41:51Bones Hyland misses free throw 1 of 2112–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:11Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 62 – 66 OKC · LAC 21% → 28% +7LAC 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q310:20James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 67 – 69 OKC · LAC 25% → 33% +8LAC 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q39:56James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAC 70 – 69 OKC · LAC 33% → 42% +9LAC 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q39:31Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)LAC 70 – 72 OKC · OKC 58% → 67% +9OKC 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q39:03Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 73 – 72 OKC · LAC 33% → 42% +9LAC 33% → 42%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Fair odds
- OKC -193
- LAC +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.1 – 119.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +66 | +110 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +96 Elo | OKC 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 113.012th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 116.29th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 109.26th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.47th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 9–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.