Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints20
- Terry RozierAssists8
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–133
- Q411.2James Bouknight makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)112–133
- Q418.1Nathan Mensah defensive rebound109–133
- Q421.0Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 18-foot pullup jump shot109–133
- Q443.1Christian Wood defensive rebound109–133
- Q446.1James Bouknight misses two point shot109–133
- Q455.0Jaxson Hayes makes dunk (Christian Wood assists)109–133
- Q41:06James Bouknight makes two point shot109–131
- Q41:08James Bouknight defensive rebound107–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q119.0Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)CHA 31 – 28 LAL · LAL 62% → 69% +7LAL 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q26:05Brandon Miller makes 24-foot three point shot (Ish Smith assists)CHA 44 – 42 LAL · CHA 25% → 32% +7CHA 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q21:39Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)CHA 53 – 53 LAL · LAL 63% → 71% +8LAL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q251.1Christian Wood makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)CHA 55 – 56 LAL · LAL 66% → 73% +8LAL 66% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:54Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Terry Rozier assists)CHA 68 – 70 LAL · CHA 18% → 25% +7CHA 18% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -11
- LAL 85%
- Fair odds
- LAL -349
- CHA +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.1 – 119.6 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +50 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +307 Elo | LAL 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 114.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 114.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 111.122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 10–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.