Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints40
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–120
- Q414.0Isaiah Joe bad pass (Cam Reddish steals)129–120
- Q425.0Isaiah Joe defensive rebound129–120
- Q428.0Anthony Davis misses alley oop layup129–120
- Q429.2Lakers offensive team rebound129–120
- Q430.0Kenrich Williams blocks LeBron James 's 2-foot layup129–120
- Q446.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren129–120
- Q446.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander129–120
- Q446.1Lakers Full timeout129–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:41Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 49 – 42 OKC · LAL 46% → 53% +7LAL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q28:51D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 52 – 46 OKC · LAL 44% → 51% +8LAL 44% → 51%+8 pts
- Q26:47LeBron James makes 22-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 55 – 50 OKC · LAL 42% → 49% +8LAL 42% → 49%+8 pts
- Q26:05Jalen Williams makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAL 55 – 53 OKC · OKC 50% → 58% +8OKC 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q39:16LeBron James makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Cam Reddish assists)LAL 78 – 64 OKC · LAL 72% → 79% +7LAL 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Fair odds
- OKC -198
- LAL +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.2 – 119.4 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +118 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +142 Elo | OKC 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 120.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 113.013th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +7.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 116.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 109.46th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–11 | Road vs home | 10–411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.