Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints31
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–118
- Q418.1Austin Reaves makes two point shot111–118
- Q425.1Anthony Edwards bad pass (D'Angelo Russell steals)109–118
- Q436.0Taurean Prince out of bounds bad pass turnover109–118
- Q439.0Austin Reaves offensive rebound109–118
- Q442.0Mike Conley blocks Austin Reaves 's 6-foot driving layup109–118
- Q451.1Rudy Gobert makes 2-foot dunk (Mike Conley assists)109–118
- Q41:07Anthony Edwards defensive rebound109–116
- Q41:09D'Angelo Russell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:13Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 70 – 70 MIN · LAL 28% → 36% +9LAL 28% → 36%+9 pts
- Q31:01Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 82 – 81 MIN · LAL 31% → 43% +11LAL 31% → 43%+11 pts
- Q343.1Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)LAL 82 – 84 MIN · MIN 57% → 69% +11MIN 57% → 69%+11 pts
- Q35.1Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)LAL 83 – 87 MIN · MIN 65% → 75% +11MIN 65% → 75%+11 pts
- Q47:43Anthony Davis makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 93 – 98 MIN · LAL 10% → 19% +9LAL 10% → 19%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6
- MIN 72%
- Fair odds
- MIN -243
- LAL +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 108.2 – 114.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +83 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +168 Elo | MIN 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 113.518th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 106.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 105.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 305–10 | Road vs home | 11–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.