Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints51
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q411.0Troy Brown Jr. makes layup (Luka Garza assists)113–127
- Q416.0Paul Reed makes 3-foot dunk111–127
- Q418.1Troy Brown Jr. bad pass (Paul Reed steals)111–125
- Q431.1Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2111–125
- Q431.1Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 2111–124
- Q431.1Luka Garza shooting foul111–123
- Q443.1Wendell Moore Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover111–123
- Q448.0Paul Reed makes 3-foot two point shot (Jaden Springer assists)111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:49Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three point shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 83 – 77 PHI · MIN 56% → 66% +10MIN 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q410:47Tyrese Maxey makes 30-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)MIN 87 – 93 PHI · PHI 67% → 78% +11PHI 67% → 78%+11 pts
- Q48:18Tobias Harris makes 17-foot step back jumpshotMIN 92 – 97 PHI · PHI 68% → 76% +8PHI 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q48:08Mike Conley makes driving layupMIN 94 – 97 PHI · MIN 23% → 32% +8MIN 23% → 32%+8 pts
- Q47:56Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)MIN 94 – 100 PHI · PHI 68% → 80% +12PHI 68% → 80%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.2 – 113.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +93 | +149 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 122.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 110.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.6 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 108.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–4 | Road vs home | 10–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+149 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.