Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Coby WhiteRebounds8
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints40
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q40.0Alex Caruso defensive rebound108–104
- Q43.1Joel Embiid misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot108–104
- Q45.276ers Full timeout108–104
- Q45.2DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2108–104
- Q45.2DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2107–104
- Q45.2Tyrese Maxey personal take foul106–104
- Q45.2DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound106–104
- Q46.1Joel Embiid misses 8-foot two point shot106–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:28Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)CHI 87 – 89 PHI · PHI 55% → 71% +16PHI 55% → 71%+16 pts
- Q46:12Patrick Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 90 – 89 PHI · CHI 29% → 45% +16CHI 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q45:25Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 93 – 89 PHI · CHI 46% → 65% +18CHI 46% → 65%+18 pts
- Q433.0Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)CHI 105 – 104 PHI · PHI 3% → 34% +31PHI 3% → 34%+31 pts
- Q416.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 106 – 104 PHI · CHI 74% → 91% +17CHI 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9.5
- PHI 82%
- Fair odds
- PHI -333
- CHI +333 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.3 – 119.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +160 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +264 Elo | PHI 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 76.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 122.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 111.07th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +11.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 108.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 101.613th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 10–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+160 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.