Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–124
- Q47.1shot clock turnover108–124
- Q431.1Jaxson Hayes makes driving layup (Rui Hachimura assists)108–124
- Q439.0Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound106–124
- Q439.0Christian Wood blocks Patrick Williams 's 13-foot two point shot106–124
- Q453.1Julian Phillips enters the game for DeMar DeRozan106–124
- Q453.1Terry Taylor enters the game for Nikola Vucevic106–124
- Q453.1Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Alex Caruso106–124
- Q453.1Dalen Terry enters the game for Coby White106–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:57Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 51 – 53 CHI · LAL 35% → 43% +8LAL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q310:28Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)LAL 63 – 67 CHI · CHI 54% → 63% +9CHI 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:43Alex Caruso makes 28-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)LAL 67 – 72 CHI · CHI 58% → 67% +9CHI 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:27Cam Reddish makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 70 – 76 CHI · LAL 21% → 29% +8LAL 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q33:45Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 70 – 79 CHI · CHI 72% → 80% +8CHI 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- CHI 48%
- Fair odds
- CHI -108
- LAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.4 – 113.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +38 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +12 Elo | LAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 113.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.423rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 111.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 114.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–9 | Road vs home | 7–721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.