Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints28
- Derrick WhiteAssists11
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds11
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints40
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–115
- Q40.1Lakers offensive team rebound126–115
- Q40.1Taurean Prince misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot126–115
- Q43.0Derrick White bad pass (Austin Reaves steals)126–115
- Q425.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound126–115
- Q428.1Taurean Prince misses 24-foot three point jumper126–115
- Q430.1Austin Reaves offensive rebound126–115
- Q433.0Taurean Prince misses 26-foot three point jumper126–115
- Q435.0Austin Reaves offensive rebound126–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:38Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)BOS 60 – 62 LAL · LAL 42% → 51% +9LAL 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q39:14Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 69 – 66 LAL · BOS 55% → 64% +9BOS 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q37:10Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BOS 73 – 72 LAL · LAL 33% → 42% +9LAL 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:51Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 76 – 72 LAL · BOS 58% → 67% +9BOS 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q34:28Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point shotBOS 83 – 79 LAL · LAL 23% → 32% +9LAL 23% → 32%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 65%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- LAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.7 – 114.6 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1654 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +97 | +46 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +108 Elo | BOS 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 114.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 114.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.1 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 110.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 110.68th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 10–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.