Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints19
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–93
- Q417.0Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound119–93
- Q421.0Justin Holiday misses 17-foot pullup jump shot119–93
- Q439.1Aaron Wiggins makes 2-foot two point shot119–93
- Q41:01Julian Strawther makes free throw 2 of 2117–93
- Q41:01Nuggets offensive team rebound117–92
- Q41:01Julian Strawther misses free throw 1 of 2117–92
- Q41:01Aaron Wiggins personal foul117–92
- Q41:05Julian Strawther defensive rebound117–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:44Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 25 – 25 DEN · OKC 44% → 51% +7OKC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q211:49Julian Strawther makes 26-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)OKC 33 – 30 DEN · DEN 35% → 42% +7DEN 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q210:51Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 36 – 30 DEN · OKC 58% → 65% +7OKC 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q24:19Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumperOKC 46 – 41 DEN · DEN 28% → 36% +7DEN 28% → 36%+7 pts
- Q22:09Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)OKC 50 – 44 DEN · DEN 25% → 33% +7DEN 25% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1
- OKC 54%
- Fair odds
- OKC -106
- DEN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.4 – 117.0 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +118 | +125 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +31 Elo | OKC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 115.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 110.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +5.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 117.17th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.2 | Pace | 98.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–4 | Road vs home | 13–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+125 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.