Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–129
- Q40.0shot clock turnover106–129
- Q423.1shot clock turnover106–129
- Q448.0Josh Minott lost ball turnover (Vasilije Micic steals)106–129
- Q457.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound106–129
- Q41:00Vasilije Micic misses 22-foot three point jumper106–129
- Q41:12Wendell Moore Jr. lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)106–129
- Q41:18Vasilije Micic bad pass (Jordan McLaughlin steals)106–129
- Q41:33Leonard Miller makes layup (Josh Minott assists)106–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:08Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 52 – 59 OKC · OKC 65% → 72% +7OKC 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q39:31Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 66 – 74 OKC · OKC 69% → 77% +8OKC 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q39:17Mike Conley makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 69 – 74 OKC · MIN 23% → 31% +8MIN 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q39:05Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MIN 69 – 77 OKC · OKC 69% → 77% +8OKC 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q38:05Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)MIN 72 – 82 OKC · OKC 75% → 82% +7OKC 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 55%
- Fair odds
- OKC -127
- MIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.3 – 115.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +89 | +110 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +37 Elo | OKC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 120.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +7.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 116.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 110.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 10–511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.