Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Anthony EdwardsAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints27
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q420.1Timberwolves defensive team rebound110–98
- Q421.1De'Aaron Fox misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–98
- Q430.0Mike Conley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)110–98
- Q451.0Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)107–98
- Q452.0De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound107–95
- Q455.1De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot107–95
- Q41:00Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound107–95
- Q41:02Trey Lyles misses 25-foot three point jumper107–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:15De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Trey Lyles assists)MIN 30 – 28 SAC · SAC 35% → 43% +7SAC 35% → 43%+7 pts
- Q28:21Shake Milton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 33 – 30 SAC · MIN 52% → 60% +7MIN 52% → 60%+7 pts
- Q26:50Domantas Sabonis makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)MIN 35 – 32 SAC · SAC 33% → 40% +7SAC 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:55Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)MIN 41 – 37 SAC · SAC 30% → 37% +7SAC 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:12Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)MIN 44 – 37 SAC · MIN 63% → 70% +7MIN 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- SAC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.2 – 114.3 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +55 | +71 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 118.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 117.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 115.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Defense rating | 114.722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–5 | Road vs home | 11–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.