Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Udoka AzubuikeRebounds11
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–120
- Q45.0shot clock turnover105–120
- Q417.2Sasha Vezenkov offensive rebound105–120
- Q420.1Chris Duarte misses 20-foot step back jumpshot105–120
- Q431.1Chris Duarte offensive rebound105–120
- Q435.0Davion Mitchell misses 26-foot step back jumpshot105–120
- Q459.2Yuta Watanabe makes 10-foot two point shot105–120
- Q41:04Yuta Watanabe defensive rebound103–120
- Q41:07Kessler Edwards misses 24-foot three point jumper103–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:23Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 5 – 4 SAC · PHX 35% → 41% +6PHX 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:53De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)PHX 9 – 13 SAC · SAC 63% → 69% +6SAC 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q24:02Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Keegan Murray assists)PHX 46 – 54 SAC · SAC 71% → 78% +7SAC 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q22:56Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 49 – 55 SAC · PHX 20% → 26% +6PHX 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q245.1Grayson Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 54 – 61 SAC · PHX 17% → 24% +6PHX 17% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 62%
- Fair odds
- SAC -160
- PHX +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.9 – 119.5 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +67 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +84 Elo | SAC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 118.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.0 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 115.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 10–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.