New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–129
- Q47.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)120–129
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2117–129
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2117–128
- Q414.1Jalen Brunson personal take foul117–127
- Q416.1RJ Barrett makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot117–127
- Q426.0Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2115–127
- Q426.0Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2115–126
- Q426.0Donte DiVincenzo shooting foul115–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:08Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 89 – 91 OKC · NY 27% → 38% +11NY 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q410:48Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 94 – 95 OKC · NY 30% → 42% +12NY 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q410:30Jalen Williams makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNY 94 – 98 OKC · OKC 58% → 70% +12OKC 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q48:44Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)NY 96 – 103 OKC · OKC 72% → 83% +11OKC 72% → 83%+11 pts
- Q46:55Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)NY 100 – 106 OKC · NY 10% → 18% +9NY 10% → 18%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 59%
- Fair odds
- OKC -137
- NY +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.8 – 119.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +53 | +120 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +64 Elo | OKC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +7.63rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 117.46th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 11–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+120 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.