Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–111
- Q45.1MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound130–111
- Q48.1Dmytro Skapintsev misses 4-foot two point shot130–111
- Q420.0Jacob Toppin enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein130–111
- Q420.0AJ Green enters the game for Malik Beasley130–111
- Q420.0MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for Brook Lopez130–111
- Q420.0Chris Livingston enters the game for Khris Middleton130–111
- Q420.0Cameron Payne makes free throw 1 of 1130–111
- Q420.0Ryan Arcidiacono shooting foul129–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:03Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIL 16 – 15 NY · NY 39% → 45% +6NY 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q16:50Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 19 – 15 NY · MIL 55% → 61% +6MIL 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q16:31Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three pointer (Taj Gibson assists)MIL 19 – 18 NY · NY 39% → 45% +6NY 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q13:56Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 29 – 20 NY · MIL 64% → 72% +8MIL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:17Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three pointer (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 68 – 58 NY · MIL 72% → 79% +7MIL 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -111
- NY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 120.9 – 120.1 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +118 | +58 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.4 | Points scored | 114.715th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 111.47th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 99.227th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 7–312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.