San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints28
- Jeremy SochanAssists8
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds12
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints40
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists16
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–132
- Q415.1Robin Lopez defensive rebound119–132
- Q419.0Dominick Barlow misses 23-foot three point jumper119–132
- Q430.0Robin Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)119–132
- Q448.1Julian Champagnie makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Tre Jones assists)119–129
- Q452.1Dominick Barlow defensive rebound117–129
- Q455.1AJ Green misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–129
- Q41:15Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)117–129
- Q41:19shot clock turnover114–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Zach Collins makes 14-foot two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 2 – 0 MIL · SA 16% → 18% +3SA 16% → 18%+3 pts
- Q111:13Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 9-foot two point shot (Malik Beasley assists)SA 2 – 2 MIL · MIL 82% → 84% +3MIL 82% → 84%+3 pts
- Q110:52Damian Lillard makes 24-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)SA 2 – 5 MIL · MIL 84% → 88% +4MIL 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q311:11Zach Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 64 – 74 MIL · SA 5% → 7% +3SA 5% → 7%+3 pts
- Q310:21Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)SA 66 – 78 MIL · MIL 92% → 95% +3MIL 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -13
- MIL 89%
- Fair odds
- MIL -544
- SA +544 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.2 – 128.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | +113 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +367 Elo | MIL 89.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 124.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 119.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.6 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 114.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 14–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.