Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Cole AnthonyRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–118
- Q41.2Gary Harris makes 29-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)114–118
- Q42.1Cole Anthony offensive rebound111–118
- Q46.0Gary Harris misses 26-foot three point jumper111–118
- Q49.1Magic Full timeout111–118
- Q49.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q49.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2111–117
- Q49.1Gary Harris personal take foul111–116
- Q410.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:54Khris Middleton makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotORL 47 – 44 MIL · MIL 55% → 63% +8MIL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:51Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ORL 52 – 50 MIL · MIL 56% → 64% +8MIL 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q21:09Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)ORL 54 – 55 MIL · MIL 63% → 71% +8MIL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q49:02Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three pointerORL 91 – 93 MIL · ORL 19% → 30% +11ORL 19% → 30%+11 pts
- Q47:39Brook Lopez makes 2-foot layup (Malik Beasley assists)ORL 91 – 95 MIL · MIL 70% → 78% +8MIL 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7.5
- MIL 77%
- Fair odds
- MIL -293
- ORL +293 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.7 – 122.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | +121 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +205 Elo | MIL 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 74.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 124.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 119.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +5.46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 119.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 15–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+121 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.