Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints38
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–129
- Q47.1Jalen Brunson offensive rebound122–129
- Q48.2RJ Barrett misses free throw 2 of 2122–129
- Q48.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2122–129
- Q48.2Bobby Portis shooting foul122–128
- Q413.1Bobby Portis makes two point shot122–128
- Q414.1Bobby Portis offensive rebound120–128
- Q416.1Damian Lillard misses 23-foot three point shot120–128
- Q418.1Bucks Full timeout120–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:18Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 51 – 56 NY · MIL 33% → 42% +8MIL 33% → 42%+8 pts
- Q21:01Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 51 – 59 NY · NY 58% → 67% +8NY 58% → 67%+8 pts
- Q35:28Pat Connaughton makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)MIL 73 – 77 NY · MIL 31% → 41% +10MIL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q31:50Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 84 – 90 NY · MIL 22% → 32% +10MIL 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q411:48Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three pointer (Cameron Payne assists)MIL 90 – 98 NY · MIL 15% → 23% +8MIL 15% → 23%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 59%
- Fair odds
- MIL -138
- NY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.7 – 119.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +121 | +48 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.6 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 112.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 99.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 7–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+121 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.