Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints42
- Terry RozierAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Suns- Devin BookerPoints35
- Kevin DurantAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–133
- Q411.0shot clock turnover119–133
- Q432.1Grayson Allen defensive rebound119–133
- Q437.0Brandon Miller misses 26-foot step back jumpshot119–133
- Q442.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2119–133
- Q442.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2119–132
- Q442.1Brandon Miller personal take foul119–131
- Q447.0Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Bradley Beal119–131
- Q447.0Chimezie Metu enters the game for Kevin Durant119–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:05Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 18 – 13 PHX · CHA 25% → 30% +6CHA 25% → 30%+6 pts
- Q15:23Terry Rozier makes 24-foot step back jumpshotCHA 21 – 15 PHX · CHA 27% → 33% +6CHA 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q12:44Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point shot (Ish Smith assists)CHA 24 – 23 PHX · CHA 19% → 24% +5CHA 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q12:16Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ish Smith assists)CHA 27 – 25 PHX · CHA 21% → 26% +5CHA 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q12:06Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 27 – 28 PHX · PHX 74% → 79% +5PHX 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -11
- PHX 85%
- Fair odds
- PHX -401
- CHA +401 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.0 – 120.5 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −44 | +64 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +303 Elo | PHX 85.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 115.016th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 114.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.8 | Margin | +0.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 7–923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.