Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints27
- Kevin DurantAssists16
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints24
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–113
- Q46.0Nassir Little defensive rebound129–113
- Q47.1Bol Bol blocks Amen Thompson 's 6-foot two point shot129–113
- Q49.1Amen Thompson offensive rebound129–113
- Q410.0Bol Bol blocks Aaron Holiday 's 7-foot two point shot129–113
- Q417.0Rockets offensive team rebound129–113
- Q417.1Udoka Azubuike blocks Cam Whitmore 's 6-foot layup129–113
- Q426.1Rockets defensive team rebound129–113
- Q427.0Nassir Little misses 26-foot three point jumper129–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:09Jusuf Nurkic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 8 – 6 HOU · PHX 41% → 47% +6PHX 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q14:34Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 20 – 14 HOU · PHX 50% → 57% +7PHX 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q136.0Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 30 – 23 HOU · HOU 33% → 40% +7HOU 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q210:16Eric Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 37 – 26 HOU · PHX 63% → 70% +7PHX 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q24:28Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 51 – 42 HOU · HOU 25% → 32% +7HOU 25% → 32%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 64%
- Fair odds
- HOU -134
- PHX +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.5 – 112.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | +50 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +98 Elo | HOU 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 111.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 108.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 12–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.