Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Jalen SmithRebounds8
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–117
- Q49.1Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound123–117
- Q410.0Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot123–117
- Q420.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound123–117
- Q420.1Myles Turner misses free throw 2 of 2123–117
- Q420.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate123–117
- Q420.1Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2123–117
- Q420.1Jae'Sean Tate personal foul122–117
- Q421.1Myles Turner defensive rebound122–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:23Jabari Smith Jr. makes 17-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)IND 113 – 113 HOU · HOU 37% → 52% +15HOU 37% → 52%+15 pts
- Q43:05Aaron Nesmith makes jump bank shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 115 – 113 HOU · IND 48% → 64% +16IND 48% → 64%+16 pts
- Q42:33Tari Eason makes 2-foot dunkIND 115 – 115 HOU · HOU 34% → 52% +18HOU 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q41:50Fred VanVleet makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotIND 115 – 117 HOU · HOU 52% → 72% +20HOU 52% → 72%+20 pts
- Q41:03Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 120 – 117 HOU · IND 49% → 85% +36IND 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- IND +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 118.1 – 120.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +38 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +114 Elo | HOU 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.9 | Points scored | 111.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.7 | Points allowed | 107.72nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +3.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 12–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.