Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints34
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q41.1Obi Toppin defensive rebound117–110
- Q42.1Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q42.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2117–110
- Q42.1Buddy Hield personal take foul116–110
- Q46.1Buddy Hield makes 1-foot driving dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)116–110
- Q412.1Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 2116–108
- Q412.1Magic offensive team rebound115–108
- Q412.1Cole Anthony misses free throw 1 of 2115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:36Gary Harris makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 89 – 86 IND · ORL 47% → 58% +11ORL 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q326.1Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Smith assists)ORL 93 – 92 IND · IND 37% → 49% +12IND 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q410:27Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)ORL 95 – 95 IND · IND 39% → 53% +13IND 39% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:31Caleb Houstan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Isaac assists)ORL 100 – 95 IND · ORL 57% → 70% +13ORL 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q46:11Paolo Banchero makes driving layupORL 104 – 101 IND · ORL 54% → 65% +11ORL 54% → 65%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- IND 52%
- Fair odds
- IND -126
- ORL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 120.2 – 122.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +65 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +13 Elo | IND 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 126.41st of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 126.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 119.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 118.628th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.