Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints50
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds10
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Chimezie MetuRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–114
- Q410.0A.J. Lawson defensive rebound128–114
- Q413.1Chimezie Metu misses 24-foot three point jumper128–114
- Q416.1Josh Okogie offensive rebound128–114
- Q418.0Josh Okogie misses driving layup128–114
- Q429.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Luka Doncic128–114
- Q429.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.128–114
- Q429.1A.J. Lawson enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.128–114
- Q429.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Dereck Lively II128–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:18Luka Doncic makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 96 – 97 PHX · DAL 33% → 46% +13DAL 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q410:02Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)DAL 96 – 100 PHX · PHX 54% → 67% +13PHX 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q49:10Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three pointerDAL 101 – 102 PHX · DAL 32% → 46% +14DAL 32% → 46%+14 pts
- Q48:08Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)DAL 106 – 102 PHX · DAL 56% → 70% +14DAL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q45:17Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DAL 113 – 106 PHX · DAL 74% → 87% +13DAL 74% → 87%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 50%
- Fair odds
- DAL -107
- PHX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.1 – 117.6 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +38 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +3 Elo | DAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 114.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 7–823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.