San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints23
- Devin VassellAssists5
- Jeremy SochanRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–144
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–144
- Q49.0shot clock turnover119–144
- Q433.0Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 2119–144
- Q433.0Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 2118–144
- Q433.0A.J. Lawson shooting foul117–144
- Q433.2Devonte' Graham defensive rebound117–144
- Q436.1Sandro Mamukelashvili blocks Dante Exum 's 8-foot two point shot117–144
- Q448.1Dante Exum defensive rebound117–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:35Jeremy Sochan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)SA 17 – 13 DAL · SA 34% → 41% +6SA 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q27:18Malaki Branham makes 23-foot three point shot (Devin Vassell assists)SA 50 – 52 DAL · SA 24% → 30% +6SA 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q27:07A.J. Lawson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 50 – 55 DAL · DAL 70% → 76% +6DAL 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q23:34Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 59 – 62 DAL · SA 22% → 28% +7SA 22% → 28%+7 pts
- Q21:48Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 64 – 67 DAL · SA 22% → 28% +7SA 22% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 72%
- Fair odds
- DAL -220
- SA +220 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.7 – 121.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | +22 | SA: Missing Victor Wembanyama −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +161 Elo | DAL 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 118.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.9 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 115.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 115.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Pace | 102.39th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−45 Elo- Victor Wembanyama sprained right ankle−13 Elo
Mavericks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.