San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints21
- Victor WembanyamaAssists5
- Zach CollinsRebounds9
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Coby WhiteAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–114
- Q45.0shot clock turnover95–114
- Q426.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound95–114
- Q430.1Malaki Branham misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–114
- Q442.2Terry Taylor turnover95–114
- Q442.2Terry Taylor offensive foul95–114
- Q455.1Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 295–114
- Q455.1Spurs offensive team rebound94–114
- Q455.1Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 294–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:42Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 31 – 27 CHI · SA 36% → 43% +7SA 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q311:14Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)SA 50 – 55 CHI · CHI 68% → 76% +8CHI 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q310:05Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 55 – 55 CHI · SA 29% → 37% +8SA 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q32:17Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 65 – 71 CHI · SA 13% → 20% +7SA 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q31:24Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 68 – 73 CHI · SA 15% → 23% +8SA 15% → 23%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -7
- CHI 75%
- Fair odds
- CHI -214
- SA +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.1 – 117.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +50 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +192 Elo | CHI 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 110.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 113.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.6 | Margin | −2.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 8–721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.