Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints35
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds14
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–129
- Q42.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)127–129
- Q44.0Scottie Barnes defensive rebound124–129
- Q46.1Bojan Bogdanovic misses free throw 2 of 2124–129
- Q46.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes free throw 1 of 2124–129
- Q46.1Scottie Barnes personal take foul124–128
- Q413.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2124–128
- Q413.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2123–128
- Q413.1Isaiah Livers shooting foul122–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:56Alec Burks makes 23-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)TOR 78 – 81 DET · DET 45% → 56% +11DET 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q323.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)TOR 86 – 90 DET · DET 49% → 61% +12DET 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q49:10Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 93 – 94 DET · TOR 36% → 49% +14TOR 36% → 49%+14 pts
- Q48:36Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)TOR 93 – 97 DET · DET 51% → 65% +14DET 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q46:20Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot step back jumpshotTOR 99 – 107 DET · DET 74% → 86% +12DET 74% → 86%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4.5
- TOR 67%
- Fair odds
- TOR -147
- DET +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.7 – 113.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −27 | TOR: Missing Garrett Temple −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +120 Elo | TOR 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.2 | Points scored | 109.728th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 121.025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | −11.430th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 106.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 117.626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–10 | Road vs home | 1–1430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+50 Elo- Garrett Temple sprained right ankle−3 Elo
Pistons
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.