Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kelly OlynykPoints27
- Kris DunnAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Isaiah StewartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–111
- Q46.1Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 1119–111
- Q46.1John Collins shooting foul119–110
- Q46.1Jaden Ivey makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)119–110
- Q410.1shot clock turnover119–108
- Q431.1John Collins defensive rebound119–108
- Q435.0Cade Cunningham misses driving layup119–108
- Q443.1Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2119–108
- Q443.1Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2118–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:58Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 75 – 72 DET · DET 28% → 37% +9DET 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q36:46Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 78 – 72 DET · UTAH 63% → 72% +9UTAH 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q44:40Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)UTAH 104 – 100 DET · DET 11% → 24% +13DET 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q43:10John Collins makes 2-foot dunk (Kelly Olynyk assists)UTAH 110 – 104 DET · UTAH 80% → 89% +9UTAH 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q42:23Kelly Olynyk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 113 – 106 DET · UTAH 83% → 95% +12UTAH 83% → 95%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2.5
- UTAH 59%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.2 – 115.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | −53 | UTAH: Usual rotation · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +66 Elo | UTAH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 108.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 120.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.4 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 117.526th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–13 | Road vs home | 1–1230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.